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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime underperformers improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still